NCAA Division I Cross Country · 2026
XC-SPI
The Caso Index
A roster-aware statistical project that separates current Power, Postmodern Era Historical Success, and eventually calibrated championship probabilities.
Current edition · Week 0
2026 Preseason
Iowa State men and NC State women lead the frozen Power Ranking by XC-SPI Preseason Score. The ranking uses public evidence through August 28, 2026.
New to XC-SPI? Start here → · FAQ →
Three lenses
Power
2026 Preseason Top 25
Who looks strongest now using the frozen roster-adjusted Preseason Score.
History
Postmodern Era Historical Success
How comparable 2020-forward NCAA scoring profiles tended to perform the following season.
Odds
Historical Title Market
Top-25-conditional historical title shares now; full current-athlete championship odds after calibration.
Start with the season
Long-form feature
Before the Gun Goes Off
Why the 2025 championship mattered before it became a spreadsheet, and which roster questions define 2026.
Readable methods
How XC-SPI Works
How race evidence becomes athlete updates, NCAA simulations, and separate outputs.
Evidence protocol
Data & Sources
Source grades, roster rules, cutoffs, missing-data treatment, and Confidence rules.
Audited Week 0 + Postmodern Era benchmark
The 50-team Preseason Score ledger remains the frozen Power Ranking record. Version 2.7 adds a strict 2020-forward Historical Success Model and a Top-25-conditional Historical Title Market. Full current-athlete XC-SPI probabilities remain gated until the athlete-level simulator passes multi-season calibration.
Public document library
Start Here
First read
Reader's Guide
Which document to open and how to interpret Power, History, and probability
Quick methods
Method at a Glance
Short workflow and equation reference
Statistics for readers
Formula & Statistics Guide
Every formula and term explained with literature provenance
Common questions
XC-SPI FAQ
Plain-language answers to the most common questions
2026 Analysis
Season feature
2026 Season Preview
Long-form championship context and 2026 questions
Power Ranking
2026 Preseason Rankings: Top 25
Frozen men's and women's Week 0 Power Ranking plus Historical Success
Historical benchmark
Postmodern Era Historical Success Model
2020-forward team-profile outcomes, 2026 success rates, and historical title odds
Main report
2026 Preseason Full Report
Power, history, assumptions, model structure, and validation plan
Calculation ledger
Team Calculation Appendix
Runner-by-runner inputs and filled Preseason Score calculations
Individual title watch
Individual Championship Prior
Evidence tiers and athlete-level title-watch record
Historical odds
Historical Success & Championship Odds Framework
Historical title market now; full current-model odds after calibration
Technical Documentation
Formal methods
Technical Specification
Complete notation, historical layer, athlete model, and release rules
Readable methods
How XC-SPI Works
Plain-language model walkthrough
Evidence protocol
Data & Evidence Standards
Source hierarchy, roster rules and missing-data policy
Variables
Data Dictionary & Variable Guide
Simple public names, definitions, units, provenance and interpretation rules
Sources
Source & Evidence Register
Public source families, grades and contradiction rules
Limitations
Model Limitations & Responsible Interpretation
Boundaries on Power, Historical Success, simulations, and odds
Validation
Historical Validation & Backtesting Plan
Tests required before current-athlete probabilities are called calibrated
Printable reference
One-Page Formula Cheat Sheet
Core equations and interpretation on one page
Project Records
Release record
Version History & Change Log
Public record of methodological, data and website changes
Attribution
Citation & Reuse Guide
How to cite, quote and reproduce XC-SPI material
2026 season archive
Each XC-SPI weekly article remains independently linkable and appears here automatically.