Week 0 Power Ranking. Iowa State opens No. 1 on the men’s side and defending champion NC State opens No. 1 on the women’s side. The public number is the XC-SPI Preseason Score, the simpler name for the roster-adjusted Week 0 index used in earlier releases. Lower is better. It is not a literal projected NCAA score or a calibrated title probability.
Power and history are separate. Version 2.7 adds a Postmodern Era Historical Success Ranking without rewriting the frozen Week 0 Power Ranking. The historical layer uses 2020-2024 championship profiles to estimate how comparable scoring shapes performed the following season from 2021-2025.
Men – 2026 Power Ranking
| Rank | Team | Preseason Score | 2025 NCAA |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Iowa State | 167.3 | 3rd / 158 |
| 2 | New Mexico | 271.6 | 2nd / 82 |
| 3 | Alabama | 277.9 | 6th / 253 |
| 4 | Oklahoma State | 291.9 | 1st / 57 |
| 5 | Colorado | 330.6 | 10th / 318 |
| 6 | BYU | 391.0 | 11th / 336 |
| 7 | Wake Forest | 424.9 | 12th / 407 |
| 8 | Louisville | 481.2 | 26th / 584 |
| 9 | Oregon | 482.7 | 5th / 239 |
| 10 | Washington State | 513.2 | 17th / 491 |
| 11 | Eastern Kentucky | 533.4 | 9th / 316 |
| 12 | Notre Dame | 547.3 | 13th / 459 |
| 13 | Michigan State | 553.0 | 23rd / 547 |
| 14 | Virginia Tech | 553.8 | 14th / 472 |
| 15 | Northern Arizona | 561.4 | 8th / 303 |
| 16 | Wisconsin | 589.2 | 19th / 514 |
| 17 | Tulane | 606.5 | 21st / 536 |
| 18 | Ole Miss | 611.1 | 22nd / 538 |
| 19 | Syracuse | 621.8 | 4th / 212 |
| 20 | Arkansas | 623.9 | 18th / 498 |
| 21 | Butler | 651.6 | 16th / 484 |
| 22 | Oklahoma | 706.0 | 15th / 480 |
| 23 | Virginia | 719.8 | 7th / 303 |
| 24 | Georgia | 772.8 | 24th / 562 |
| 25 | Princeton | 797.8 | 27th / 598 |
Women – 2026 Power Ranking
| Rank | Team | Preseason Score | 2025 NCAA |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NC State | 124.4 | 1st / 114 |
| 2 | BYU | 234.4 | 2nd / 130 |
| 3 | Iowa State | 308.7 | 20th / 491 |
| 4 | New Mexico | 335.3 | 4th / 216 |
| 5 | West Virginia | 350.7 | 9th / 280 |
| 6 | Oregon | 395.6 | 3rd / 153 |
| 7 | Alabama | 396.9 | 16th / 460 |
| 8 | Stanford | 442.1 | 6th / 268 |
| 9 | Notre Dame | 473.0 | 7th / 278 |
| 10 | Northern Arizona | 502.3 | 8th / 279 |
| 11 | Colorado | 521.5 | 13th / 434 |
| 12 | South Carolina | 539.4 | 15th / 456 |
| 13 | Utah | 547.7 | 17th / 465 |
| 14 | Virginia | 548.3 | 24th / 558 |
| 15 | Northwestern | 554.5 | 18th / 469 |
| 16 | Florida | 558.5 | 5th / 225 |
| 17 | North Carolina | 598.4 | 11th / 413 |
| 18 | Arkansas | 643.2 | — |
| 19 | Villanova | 647.1 | 25th / 574 |
| 20 | Wisconsin | 650.3 | 26th / 600 |
| 21 | Oklahoma State | 661.3 | 12th / 432 |
| 22 | LSU | 697.4 | 23rd / 530 |
| 23 | Penn State | 757.5 | 10th / 406 |
| 24 | Georgetown | 765.3 | 14th / 454 |
| 25 | Washington | 803.0 | 19th / 472 |
Postmodern Era Historical Success
The Historical Success Ranking is ordered primarily by estimated podium conversion because the national-title outcome is sparse. It uses four simple features: five-runner score, first scorer, fifth scorer, and fifth-to-seventh depth gap. No school-name prestige term is used.
Men – Historical Success Top 10
| History | Power | Team | Title rate | Podium | Top 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Iowa State | 30.07% | 65.88% | 84.54% |
| 2 | 2 | New Mexico | 20.97% | 47.58% | 73.26% |
| 3 | 3 | Alabama | 8.88% | 39.09% | 68.02% |
| 4 | 4 | Oklahoma State | 7.48% | 32.59% | 58.31% |
| 5 | 5 | Colorado | 9.81% | 30.06% | 62.95% |
| 6 | 7 | Wake Forest | 6.02% | 28.33% | 54.47% |
| 7 | 6 | BYU | 4.61% | 22.12% | 52.07% |
| 8 | 8 | Louisville | 4.30% | 19.80% | 45.99% |
| 9 | 9 | Oregon | 3.96% | 17.91% | 43.95% |
| 10 | 10 | Washington State | 2.84% | 16.95% | 40.45% |
Women – Historical Success Top 10
| History | Power | Team | Title rate | Podium | Top 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | NC State | 25.86% | 68.61% | 88.08% |
| 2 | 2 | BYU | 9.63% | 49.70% | 79.11% |
| 3 | 5 | West Virginia | 10.24% | 38.24% | 66.54% |
| 4 | 4 | New Mexico | 7.28% | 29.21% | 62.50% |
| 5 | 6 | Oregon | 6.00% | 21.71% | 47.28% |
| 6 | 8 | Stanford | 5.32% | 20.01% | 45.40% |
| 7 | 9 | Notre Dame | 5.10% | 19.90% | 45.18% |
| 8 | 18 | Arkansas | 5.22% | 18.60% | 41.01% |
| 9 | 16 | Florida | 4.28% | 18.20% | 43.05% |
| 10 | 3 | Iowa State | 2.45% | 15.39% | 38.85% |
On the men’s side, the two rankings remain closely aligned, but Colorado has a stronger historical title shape than its No. 5 Power position alone suggests. The women show larger differences: West Virginia rises in the historical layer, while Iowa State remains No. 3 in Power but is No. 10 in Historical Success. The Power Ranking is unchanged.
What moved the Power Ranking
The largest movements remain roster stories. Iowa State’s men carry five NCAA-proven values in the candidate scoring five. Oklahoma State remains elite at the front but must replace verified departures from the championship five. Louisville receives a major low-stick upgrade from Nickson Kogei but still carries back-end uncertainty. On the women’s side, NC State combines a championship baseline with continuity; Iowa State’s roster directly attacks the fourth/fifth-runner weakness that inflated its 2025 score; and Isca Chelangat’s prior moves from Oklahoma State to Arkansas.
Individual title watch
Men: Rocky Hansen is the Week 0 favorite, followed by Solomon Kipchoge, Brian Musau, and Denis Kipngetich as primary contenders. Women: defending champion Doris Lemngole and 2025 runner-up Jane Hedengren open as co-favorites. These remain evidence tiers rather than calibrated individual-title probabilities.
Read deeper
Season feature
Before the Gun Goes Off
The 2025-to-2026 story: defending champions, roster shocks, individual title races, and what September can answer.
Historical odds
Historical Success & Championship Odds
Postmodern Era title, podium, and top-10 benchmarks – plus the separate gate for full current-model odds.
Methods
How XC-SPI Works
A readable explanation of the data, equations, race adjustments, athlete updates, and NCAA scoring simulation.
Core documents
Ranking record
2026 Preseason Rankings: Top 25
Power Ranking plus the new Postmodern Era Historical Success layer.
Historical benchmark
Postmodern Era Historical Success Model
The modern-era training window, model, full 2026 success tables, and historical title odds.
Main report
2026 Preseason Full Report
Power Ranking, Historical Success, assumptions, methods, and validation plan.
Recalculation ledger
Team-by-Team Calculation Appendix
Every runner input, Confidence value, Adjusted Runner Score, five-runner subtotal, and Depth Risk term.
Individual title watch
Individual Championship Prior
Preseason evidence tiers with current XC/track support.