Historical odds, v2.7. XC-SPI now publishes a Postmodern Era Historical Title Market built from modern NCAA team-profile outcomes. It is intentionally separate from the 2026 Power Ranking and from the still-gated Current Model Probability.
Postmodern Era (Super-Shoe Era onward): 2020-present. The benchmark is an XC-SPI project periodization. The strict historical fit uses 2020-2024 NCAA championship profiles to predict 2021-2025 outcomes. The disrupted 2020 season is flagged and rerun as a sensitivity check rather than silently treated as ordinary.
Three different numbers
Preseason Score is the current roster-strength index and determines the Power Ranking. Historical Success Rate estimates how often comparable Postmodern Era profiles produced a title, podium, top-10, or top-20 finish the next season. XC-SPI Probability will eventually come from the validated current-athlete NCAA simulator. The first two are available now; the third remains behind its calibration gate.
Historical Title Market
The direct historical title rates are profile probabilities and therefore do not need to sum to 100% across the current teams. For a betting-style, mutually exclusive board, XC-SPI normalizes the current Top 25 title rates within each sex so those displayed title shares sum to 100%. The resulting fair lines are therefore conditional on the displayed Top 25, not a complete NCAA-field sportsbook market. Public lines are rounded to avoid false precision.
Men – Postmodern Era Historical Title Market
| Title rank | Team | Power | Profile title rate | Top-25 title share | Historical fair line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Iowa State | 1 | 30.07% | 26.34% | +275 |
| 2 | New Mexico | 2 | 20.97% | 18.37% | +450 |
| 3 | Colorado | 5 | 9.81% | 8.60% | +1075 |
| 4 | Alabama | 3 | 8.88% | 7.78% | +1175 |
| 5 | Oklahoma State | 4 | 7.48% | 6.55% | +1425 |
| 6 | Wake Forest | 7 | 6.02% | 5.27% | +1800 |
| 7 | BYU | 6 | 4.61% | 4.04% | +2375 |
| 8 | Louisville | 8 | 4.30% | 3.77% | +2550 |
| 9 | Oregon | 9 | 3.96% | 3.47% | +2775 |
| 10 | Notre Dame | 12 | 3.16% | 2.77% | +3500 |
| 11 | Washington State | 10 | 2.84% | 2.49% | +3925 |
| 12 | Virginia Tech | 14 | 2.83% | 2.48% | +3925 |
| 13 | Michigan State | 13 | 1.67% | 1.47% | +6700 |
| 14 | Eastern Kentucky | 11 | 1.09% | 0.96% | +10325 |
| 15 | Butler | 21 | 1.05% | 0.92% | +10775 |
Women – Postmodern Era Historical Title Market
| Title rank | Team | Power | Profile title rate | Top-25 title share | Historical fair line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NC State | 1 | 25.86% | 26.26% | +275 |
| 2 | West Virginia | 5 | 10.24% | 10.40% | +850 |
| 3 | BYU | 2 | 9.63% | 9.78% | +925 |
| 4 | New Mexico | 4 | 7.28% | 7.39% | +1250 |
| 5 | Oregon | 6 | 6.00% | 6.09% | +1550 |
| 6 | Stanford | 8 | 5.32% | 5.40% | +1750 |
| 7 | Arkansas | 18 | 5.22% | 5.30% | +1775 |
| 8 | Notre Dame | 9 | 5.10% | 5.18% | +1825 |
| 9 | Florida | 16 | 4.28% | 4.34% | +2200 |
| 10 | Iowa State | 3 | 2.45% | 2.49% | +3925 |
| 11 | South Carolina | 12 | 2.32% | 2.35% | +4150 |
| 12 | Northwestern | 15 | 2.19% | 2.23% | +4375 |
| 13 | Alabama | 7 | 2.13% | 2.16% | +4525 |
| 14 | Colorado | 11 | 2.12% | 2.15% | +4550 |
| 15 | Utah | 13 | 1.91% | 1.94% | +5050 |
Why the order is not the Power Ranking
The historical odds are allowed to reorder teams because scoring shape matters. Colorado is No. 5 in the men’s Power Ranking but No. 3 in the historical title market. On the women’s side, West Virginia rises above its Power position, while Iowa State’s No. 3 Power profile converts less often in the Postmodern benchmark because it is unusually front-loaded behind its leading runners. That difference is a feature of having separate questions, not an error.
Podium and top-10 rates
Podium and top-10 outcomes are not mutually exclusive across teams, so XC-SPI does not normalize those rates to 100%. A team can have a 40% historical podium rate while several other teams also have substantial podium rates. Those are direct event probabilities from the historical model.
Full current-model championship odds are still gated
The Historical Title Market is a modern-era benchmark, not the final athlete-level forecast. Current XC-SPI title, podium, and top-10 probabilities will activate only after the athlete distributions, availability/selection treatment, team-day dependence, exact NCAA scoring simulation, and multi-season probability calibration pass the stated release tests.
Fair-price arithmetic
Once an event probability p is accepted for pricing, fair decimal odds are 1/p; American odds use the standard positive/negative conversion; market odds can be converted to implied probability; vig can be removed from a complete mutually exclusive board; and expected value at decimal price d is p×d−1. These formulas translate probabilities; they do not validate them.
Documents
Historical model
Postmodern Era Historical Success Model
Full Postmodern Era method, model selection, 2026 success rates, historical title odds, and sensitivity checks.
Odds framework
Historical Success & Championship Odds Framework
Historical title-market construction now; full current-athlete odds after calibration.
Validation gate
Historical Validation & Backtesting Plan
The chronological tests required before current-athlete probabilities are described as calibrated.
Interpretation
Model Limitations & Responsible Interpretation
What Power, Historical Success, simulation probabilities, and fair-price language can and cannot support.