New to XC-SPI? Start with three separate questions: Power (who looks strongest now), Historical Success (what similar Postmodern Era profiles became), and Championship Odds (what the validated current-athlete simulation eventually says). They are allowed to disagree.
Start here
First read
Reader's Guide
Which document answers which question and how to interpret Power, History, and probabilities.
Two-page overview
Method at a Glance
The pipeline and core equations without the full technical detail.
Historical benchmark
Postmodern Era Historical Success Model
How 2020-forward NCAA profiles are used to estimate title, podium, top-10, and top-20 success.
Plain-language statistics
Formula & Statistics Guide
Every core equation and term explained with methodological provenance.
Common questions
XC-SPI FAQ
Answers about Preseason Score, Historical Success, roster risk, simulations, and odds.
What odds exist now?
Version 2.7 publishes Historical Title Odds as a Top-25-conditional Postmodern Era benchmark. Those are not the final Current Model Probability. Full athlete-level title, podium, and top-10 probabilities remain behind the championship-simulation and calibration gate.
Odds framework
Historical Success & Championship Odds Framework
What can be priced historically now and what remains gated.
Interpretation
Model Limitations & Responsible Interpretation
What the model can support, what it cannot, and how to quote the outputs responsibly.